With the heat bearing down in the dog days of summer skiers can’t help but seek relief in dreams of a deep, cold winter. The question always is, what sort of winter will the next one be?
NOAA prediction for Winter 11/12.
For the purposes of planning for the coming winter, the relevant question isn’t whether there is or is not a long term trend leading to the demise of winter, but whether there will be a short term renaissance of it this next season.
One thing that is absolutely certain is man’s ability to make accurate long range forecasts has a terrible track record. By long range I mean more than a week away. Some guys are better than others, but few can predict the season to come several months in advance with a track record better than major league sluggers, which means less than 50% accurate. Piers Corbyn is an exception, but he doesn’t share his knowledge for free.
Predictive data from International Research Institute for Climate and Society. More statistical voodoo.
I hadn’t kept track that much since moving to Truckee, but two years ago it was very clear that the squirrels had received word from on high that they needed to stockpile pine cones for the winter to come. As they knew, the winter of 10/11 was long and deep in the Sierra.
On the heels of that year it was obvious that last year would be different. Instead of incessant chattering and throwing down pine cones like bombs on our roof their absence was conspicuous; the silence foreboding. It was as if they had been told “no worries, no hurry,” and the winter came late and was thin.
Predictions for Winter 12/13 from Scientific American. Weak jetstream = Brutal Winter???
Is it going to be a big winter this year? I’m not saying it is, but two things I do know. As ever, it’ll be unlike any winter you can ever remember. Second, the squirrels have been very busy of late, not just in Truckee, but throughout the Sierra. Believe what you want, and plan accordingly.
© 2012
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Sun is moving south, the earth remains warm……monarchs are hatching…..havn’t blocked up wood yet…..tractor is stuck…..Barton fair is starting….average rainfall…some weak trees showing color….summer still holds on…Teleman
In Valdez and across the Chugach we continue to have a near
record cool summer. Thus,
much of last season’s near record snowfall remains on mid-level glaciated
terrain for the first time in years. This snow will remain and give us a good base on those glaciers
for early season turn earning. Many large patches of snow away from glaciers remain on mainly north aspects.
Today it is snowing at six thousand feet as it was
yesterday. Oct 15 is historically reliable
as a good start date and then snow through the winter, heavy at times HA! Snow quality and slope stability remain unpredictable in the long term.
Global warming is predicted to drive weather events to
extremes in Alaska and there is much evidence to support this. It’s not “just the weather.” There are some patterns developing in
Valdez that I see that are unusual, but that would be a “white paper”. But here is some more recent
stuff. Last winter, we broke the
record for most snow in a 30-40 day period. We also had more extreme wind events(over 100mph) in Oct and Nov than ever for those months. For the past 5 years we have received
little or no snow after Feb 15th. What’s with that? Valdez could become a very dangerous
place to live if wind and snow amounts are enhanced by climate change due
global warming caused by…us.
Then there’s is the rising oceans that will swamp Valdez in storm surges like most other coastal communities. but hey that’s 50 year away so who cares.
We live Outside of Toronto, Ontario, Canada and the squirrels in out backyard are hoarding the walnuts! Looking forward to a fantastic cold WInter Wonderland!!!!!!!
the deer have been eating all my trees up quick this year. Lots of fawns too… it’s on!
SE South Dakota and squirrels are hogging the walnuts…I think we’ll get dumped on this winter. Too much of a break last winter. I agree only God knows what he’s up to.
what the hell happeneed to the El Nino forecast that was supposed to favor the South???
oh hey Craig- that was last year’s prediction!
I originally thought it was this year’s prediction too, until I looked closer. The image caption sets the record straight – Winter 11/12 (last year).
Speaking of extremes, here’s the latest NWS climate summary for Valdez last month. Off the chart rain that left 5 feet of well settled snow above 4000′ with epic skiing on Oct 1.
https://www.arh.noaa.gov/wmofcst.php?wmo=NOAK48PAVW&type=public
That’s what everybody is saying in Sierra County! People are predicting a big winter based on squirrel behavior and the fact all the animals seem exceptionally fat in preparation. Nice to see somebody noticed this in Truckee, also. I was just googling predicting weather through squirrel behavior and ended up here.
Thought they were backing off a few weeks ago, but they still appear to be pretty active. Not sure if there’s more squirrel activity storing nuts, or nuts investigating squirrel activity. 😉